Bluffing

A bluff is a bet made to make better hands fold. It is the most famous move in poker and the most misused. The best players do not bluff more than others; they bluff in the right spots, against the right players, with the right hands.

The maths of a bluff

A bluff risks your bet to win the pot. It breaks even when your opponent folds:

bet ÷ (pot + bet) of the time.

A half-pot bluff must work one time in three; a pot-sized bluff, one time in two. The full table is in expected value. This is why small bluffs on dry boards are so common: they only need to work occasionally.

When to bluff

A good bluff tells a believable story. Before you bluff, ask:

1. What hand am I representing? If you raised before the flop and the flop comes A♦K♣4♠, you can easily have an ace. If the flop is 7♣6♦5♥, you rarely can.
2. Can my opponent call? On a dry board, many hands have nothing to call with. On a wet board, draws and pairs call.
3. Who am I bluffing? See below.
4. How many players? Bluffing one player is much easier than bluffing three.

Bluff with the right cards: the semi-bluff

A semi-bluff is a bet with a hand that is probably behind now but can improve: a flush draw, a straight draw. It has two ways to win:

• your opponent folds now, or
• you hit your draw and win at showdown.

With Q♥J♥ on 10♥9♥3♣ you have a flush draw and an open-ended straight draw: 15 outs, about 54% to make one of them by the river. Betting this hand is often better than checking, even though you have nothing yet.

Blockers

Holding a card that your opponent needs for a strong hand makes their strong hands less likely. With the A♣ on a board of three clubs, nobody can have the best flush. That makes your bluff more likely to work: you "block" the hand that would call.

Who not to bluff

• Calling stations: players who call with anything. You cannot bluff someone who does not fold.
• Beginners who do not understand what you represent. They call because they have a pair, any pair.
• Several players at once. Someone usually has something.

The best bluffing targets are thoughtful, cautious players: they fold hands they think are beaten.

Bluffing in a home game

Home games are full of players who like to see the river, and who find folding painful. That makes them the hardest to bluff. Against them:

• bluff less than you think you should,
• bet your good hands bigger, because they will call,
• and save your bluffs for the quiet, careful players at the table.

The other half of the picture is value betting: most money in poker is won by betting good hands, not by bluffing bad ones.